Sunday 2 December 2007

No transactions = no prices

The price finding process depends in part on how quickly transactions take to complete. If there are no transactions there are no prices, and therefore no signals of how much goods are worth. This occasionally happens in illiquid markets - in a housing market, say, house values may be falling, but the official prices show no decline, because house sellers are aware of the fact and are holding out for better prices before they complete a transaction. No transaction = no price.

This has now happened at the economy-wide level, in Zimbabwe. Basic goods, presumably most of the consumption basket, have now disappeared from shop shelves, so the local statisticians cannot observe the prices. They therefore cannot compute an inflation rate. According to the article, September's inflation rate was 8,000% p.a., and judging by the rate of increase, October's rate must be in 5 figures now. The loans that the central bank is extending to businesses will simply increase the money supply and boost inflation even further. When there are no goods available, there's no point giving people more money to buy them.

The goods have disappeared because President Robert Mugabe has imposed price controls on the basic goods in question - not a good idea, obviously. For all his erudition Mugabe doesn't seem to have picked up the basic tenets of supply and demand - low prices = high demand, low supply. Or, more possibly, he simply doesn't care about his people.

Either way, he's unfit to lead his country.

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